Over a period of time as a result of LED backlight LCD TV sales decreased and LED lighting of slow growth,2011 LED appeared the situation of supply exceeding demand, supply and demand gap of30% falls. In 2012, as the backlight and the lighting market demand pick up,dab4d55ck the excessive supply problems will be effectively alleviate. According to the NPD LED DisplaySearch quarter of market supply and demand forecast report Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report points out, the first quarter and demand excess ratio is 19%,LED Design the second quarter will be further decreased to 16%.

In 2010, Samsung LED, LGIT and electronic (Lextar ) and other major LED manufacturers to rapidly expand the MOCVD capacity, but found to overestimate the market demand. To deal with the problem of excess supply, they began in the late 2011to adjust the capacity utilization rate, average capacity utilization rate dropped to 50%.

NPD DisplaySearch is expected in 2012will have two major factors promoting LED demand rapid growth. First, the low cost of straight down type backlight will drive LED LED upgrade on demand. CCFL backlight TV and direct LED backlight TV in the price of only minor differences, on a32 inch television,organic baby clothes wholesale spread only in about 5%.

In addition, high efficiency and energy saving characteristics will also promote LED lighting has sustained growth, such as LED lighting products a lumen is close to the traditional lighting products day lumen. In 2011March Japan after a major earthquake, due to power shortage and coupled with government encouragement policy, LED lighting products to increase sales. NPD DisplaySearch predicts2012 lighting products sales in Japan will increase continuously, while other regions such as China, the United States and South Korea also strongly in the development of LED lighting.

At present, LED backlight applied to all medium and small size LCD TV, in Mobile PC ( including notebook computer, netbooks and tablet computer ) permeability also nearly 100%,LED Light Bulb liquid crystal display device and liquid crystal television permeability also continued to grow, but each module of LED package a number is on the decline. Low cost direct LED TV in 2012 is expected to achieve rapid growth.

NPD DisplaySearch quarter LED supply and demand and market forecast report Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report analyzed each quarter LED industry supply and demand, price from the chip, LED manufacturers route blueprint in areas such as analysis of LED industry development prospects, and provide reliable prediction data. A report in PowerPoint and Excel database form.

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There are institutions that the subsidy rules slightly lower than market expectations. Shun Securities believes that the subsidies, to adjust the product structure, so the subsidy product type is more concentrated, the amount of subsidies are reduced, subsidy policy on the stimulating effect of limited sales. But the divided category," the scope of subsidies will be more extensive, almost all LED color television in the allowance range, will be more benefit from the policy. Key recommendation of Gree Electric (000651), Hisense Electric (600060).dab4d53ck In addition, although electric boss (00250 is not in the scope of subsidies, but considering its growth and stability and the valuation adjustment of the full, also give recommendation.

Shenyin Wanguo (price, information, comments that the air-conditioning subsidies ) also slightly lower than expected, a higher proportion of fixed subsidy, frequency conversion speed slow promotion. Flat TV subsidies as expected, a higher proportion of small and medium size subsidies, alleviate competition.

Gree Haier Hisense benefit

Affected by this, yesterday h home appliances plate shine, SKYWORTH (0751-HK ) rose super a, TCL multimedia (1070-HK ), Haier Electrical (1169-HK ) or6% (0449-HK), high rise near4%.A home appliances plate also outperform the market, black power of Hisense electrical lead, rose 5.89%, Sichuan Changhong (600839),overseastudyhk.com/ Sichuan Jiuzhou (000801) subsequently. White power, show strong company (300160), Zhejiang (002677), Meida opened to environmental protection (300272), spring company, an environmental shield (002011) rose 4% in the above.

Research Report is expected in home appliances is expected to significantly outperform the market index. The first quarter of 2012, although home appliances plate fundamentals is very poor, but expected a new round of stimulus policy come on stage, will be beneficial to the product sales and industry profitability, plate and significantly outperform the market index.

In addition, after the recent on the Pearl River Delta Air conditioning industry chain research, that the air-conditioning industry competition pattern to improve the effect of apparent,ipazzport air conditioning price increase will drive the industry profitability. Recommend products competitiveness enterprise Gree, Hisense, Qingdao Haier Electrical Appliance (600690). In addition to be concerned about the benefit of high efficiency inverter air conditioner electromagnetic expansion valve drive increased demand for three shares (002050). Hong Kong stocks continue to recommend the Haier Electrical appliances, SKYWORTH digital, in addition with the upstream and downstream industry chain integration advantages and early TV on the Internet into leading TCL multimedia is also worthy of attention.

Shenyin think, from the rules, flat panel TV benefit level higher than air conditioning, black lead Hisense Electric will benefit, air-conditioning industry in the one or two levels of energy-efficient products a higher proportion of Gree appliances, beauty appliances (000527), Qingdao Haier is also expected to benefit from the subsidy policy. In turn recommended Qingdao Haier, Hisense Electric, Gree appliances,LED Floodlight beauty appliances, Hefei Sanyo (600983), little swan. Galaxy securities are similar, recommend benefit high efficiency flat panel television Hisense, TCL appliances; air-conditioning bibcock enterprise Gree, beautiful, Haier; major supplier of domestic electronic expansion valve three flowers company.

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Recently, the Ministry of science and technology released" semiconductor lighting technology development" Twelfth Five-Year Plan" special plan" ( Draft), put forward by 2015, more than 80% of the chip to realize localization, large MOCVD equipment, the key raw materials to realize localization, LED product cost is reduced to 1/5 in 2011.

"dab4d52ck If this goal can be achieved, LED lighting is expected to depreciate considerably, huge Chinese market will accelerate the opening of civil." Recently, in the world's largest lighting fair and the Guangzhou international lighting exhibition organizers Guangya Messe Frankfurt "held for LED industry spring " on the seminar, Chinese and foreign experts agree.

In the conference of a business person to reporters just a dead, instead of the traditional60 watt incandescent light bulb5 watt bulb LED average retail price of a price of $18.9( about 118.9 yuan), the average life expectancy is around 50000 hours, according to a big city ( such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou house price )0.61 yuan / W calculation, use LED lights for 50000 hours lighting is used to cost about 270yuan.Air Mouse And60 watt incandescent lamp sold for about $3, but the average life of only 1500 hours. In the same condition calculation, use of incandescent lamps cost about 1932 yuan.

" LED lamp advantage is obvious, but at present civilian market penetration rate is only about 5%. The main reason is the LED lamp chip core technology for foreign company monopolies, high prices." Shanghai Institute of lighting one expert said.

However, this situation will be changed. The world's largest lighting exhibition Guangzhou International Lighting Fair founder, light lighting research institute, Dr. Pan Wenbo said, with current LED chip for lamps cost nearly 60% estimates, if the chip implementation is homebred change, light chip prices can drive the lamp cost drops nearly 50%; plus package technology upgrade and high efficiency and low cost driving circuit for popularization, lamps the cost can be reduced to30%-40% now, to replace 40W incandescent lamp bulb LED price fell to20-30 yuan, street lamps fell slightly smaller, but can also fall to around 1000 yuan mainstream price,A19 LED Light Bulb contribute to the LED lighting in the civilian market to accelerate the penetration.

In fact, in energy saving and emission reduction targets under pressure of LED lighting, countries of civil promotion strength is all-time increase. In May 16th, the State Council executive meeting to study the energy saving and emission reduction through the resolution, proposed will arrange 2200000000 yuan to support the promotion of energy-saving lamps and LED lights, the promotion period is one year.

With the LED market demand increased further, China lighting the tremendous potential of the market by the foreign and Chinese LED enterprise value. With the global lighting industry leader called the2012Guangzhou international lighting exhibition display data, will be opening in June 9th show the scale new high, up to 220000square meters. Philips and other world500 strong enterprises as well as BDO 润达, ground the photoelectric and other well-known domestic listing Corporation have taken large booth, display LED lighting civil products have become more numerous, to rob the Chinese market to prepare ahead of time.

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In late February,"925" green lighting Festival reform demonstration engineering conference held in Guangzhou. On the meeting, Chinese annulus endowment Committee of Chinese annulus endowment appoint disclosed,Plastic wood will be in the "12th Five-Year Plan" arrangement of 8000000000central budget funds for the procurement of4000000.dab4c52ck LED efficient road lighting products, at the same time will help of not less than 3000000000 Yuan capital of local form a complete set. He Xuemin expresses, Chinese annulus endowment committee will be in the piloareas stages determine10 capital city,50 cities,100 counties (including provincial developing zone ) the implementation of green lighting energy-saving demonstration project.

From the recent disclosure of the central 8000000000of procurement funds, as can be seen, before the LED lamps procurement is mainly composed of various local government to promote, and now state of support has risen to the central level, reflect the state of strategic emerging industry support is gradually increased, the demand of energy saving and emission reduction is becoming increasingly urgent. However, it has not been altered states "Viribright LED outdoor, business, and civil" promotion orientation. Many LED manufacturers look forward to about LED biggest potential market -- civil lighting subsidies are still unclear.

If we analyze the "roadmap" of the five phase, we found the announcement after transition period two phases were eliminated more than 100W,60W above the incandescent lamp, but the real power in the incandescent lamp above the very little, so the period is not much opportunity to replace LED. partition furnitureIn October 1, 2015entered the" interim evaluation period" may be prohibited the sale of60W following the incandescent lamp, so that the LED opportunities or to come. After this play, slightly arranges thinks civilian lighting business to endure, waiting time.

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